The Swine Flu "Pandemic"

Welcome to the new world of medical sensationalism. The recent "outbreak" of the H1N1 virus, aka "swine flu" has provided some of the major news networks with the ultimate story. Scare the public and increase ratings, it worked with terrorism, and now it appears to be working with the swine flu pandemic. From pictures of Dr. Gupta, CNN's medical authority, wearing a worried look and a face mask, to Vice-President Biden's gaff about why all Americans should cease flying immediately, the American people are being fed misinformation on H1N1 at an alarming rate. And they are scared. Airline stocks are plummeting, people are avoiding pork, and sales of surgical masks are increasing exponentially. In Vermont, the National Gaurd is escorting deliveries of anti-viral medicines to hospitals. And, of course, the religious crazies are out predicting the "end of days".

Every day we are reminded of the swine flu death toll. For example, on today's CNN page (May 3, 2009), there is a headline article stating that "Confirmed Cases of H1N1 Virus Approach 900". It is important to realize that 900 deaths, while seemingly significant, really is not. Cancer kills over 440,000 Americans per year, or about 1200 a day. Over 9000 Americans, 24 each day, die from contaminants in the food that we eat. In fact, 900 deaths worldwide represents about 0.00013% of the world's population. This is a nasty little virus, with some interesting genetics (see tomorrow's post!), but it is not yet a global killer. And due to some rather quick work by scientists, we already know more about this virus than most.

So why the panic? Mostly because people do not understand the jargon of the people who study infectious diseases. Yes, there is a pandemic... but it is important to recognize what the word pandemic really means. An epidemic is an outbreak of a disease in a localized population, while a pandemic simply means that the epidemic has moved into neighboring populations. In today's world, most epidemics, and all flu outbreaks, go pandemic quickly. A pandemic is not Armageddon, it is simply a widespread outbreak of a disease.

Some people will say that the news networks are just keeping people informed. But the reality is that this bout of swine flu is going to fade rather quickly as summer progresses, and with this fading will be the attention of the American people. But, unfortunately, the virus will be back, and it could return with a vengeance. But due to the actions of the news networks, we are now in the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome. When this virus, or one of its close relatives returns, most people will ignore the advice to get a vaccine, thinking that this is just another "news story", and not a real threat. After all, they have already survived the "threats" from avian and swine flu, how bad can it get? The answer is, very bad indeed. Viruses are patient little objects, and a few seasons of low activity often preclude a true outbreak in a population. H1N1 may not be bad this year, but if it mutates over the summer, we could have problems next year if we don't prepare now by planning ahead and funding the agencies that work to protect us from infectious outbreaks.

For more, quality, information, stop watching the infomercials known as the nightly news, and check out real sources such as the CDC. Take prudent precautions, the same as you would take during any high-disease season. Wash your hands frequently, especially when you have been in public spaces, and see your doctor if you develop flu-like symptoms. But lets stop the panic and sensationalism, and instead use our brains to think.

Dr Google

Is there anything that Google can't do?

An article in the NY Times ("Google Uses Searches to Track Flu's Spread") by Miguel Helft reports that Google may be able to detect outbreaks of influenza up to two weeks earlier than the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). According to Google, people who have the symptoms of the flu search for terms such as muscle aches and flu on the search engine, and data-mining of these searches can help pinpoint outbreaks in advance.

There are several alarming items that can be derived from this report.

• Google is faster at reporting medical events, epecially outbreaks, than the CDC. Maybe we should not be suprised by this since the CDC is a government agency, but one has to wonder what is in this for Google. After all, Google is a for-profit (and big profits!) business, and we may want to be careful about turning over reporting to a private company.
• People search the internet before seeing their doctors. We all knew that this was the case, and we have all done it. Who wants to sit in a doctor's office for 3-4 hours when they are sick? But this also means that people are using Google as their primary first source of medical information. Anyone who lives on the web knows the amount of garbage that exists in cyberspace.
  

There is also some good news from this study.

• We all know that the government is not known for its ability to respond rapidly. The use of the studies by both Google and Yahoo! may help develop a more rapid response plan. Maybe we don't need it for influenza, but other outbreaks, such as SARS and Avian flu, may require a faster response time than the CDC can currently supply.
  

What would be interesting is if Google informed the medical community on where these people were going to get their information on the web. Is it a reliable source, such as WebMD, or is it Bob's Influenza Shop? Maybe then the medical community can start to use the web effectively to deliver useful information to the public.